The artificial intelligence sector is undergoing a financial frenzy that is raising questions among economic observers. Arthur Hayes, an iconic figure in digital finance, puts forward a bold thesis: the current discourse on safety and "Safety First" surrounding the deployment of AI models is merely a smokescreen. According to him, this rhetoric hides a more concerning reality tied to uncertain demand and the potential burnout of projects, despite massive investments reaching hundreds of billions of dollars. This analysis highlights the growing gap between the colossal capital injected by tech giants and the actual profitability of industrial pilots.
At the heart of this reflection lies the question of infrastructure financing, particularly regarding data centers. The liquidity required to sustain this exponential growth has led to a significant accumulation of debt, estimated by some experts to result in an external funding gap approaching $1.5 trillion by 2028. Major players, such as Oracle, Meta, or TeraWulf, illustrate this heavy reliance on financial leverage to build the physical foundations of AI. This dependence on credit creates a systemic vulnerability, exacerbated by sometimes complex debt structures that worry analysts regarding the sector's long-term stability.
Hayes’ thesis proposes a specific macroeconomic chain of events for digital assets. In the event of a credit crisis hitting the AI ecosystem, bitcoin would not be spared, suffering a sharp correction just like other risk assets and tech stocks. However, this initial pullback would, in his view, be the prelude to massive intervention by monetary authorities. The scenario suggests that by injecting new liquidity to stabilize the economy in the face of widespread failure, central banks would paradoxically trigger a new rally for bitcoin, which is perceived as a store of value against monetary debasement.
Nevertheless, a critical distance should be maintained regarding these projections. While the debt risks are real, the causal link between a potential AI crisis and a monetary bailout favorable to cryptocurrencies remains purely speculative. The market could just as easily react with a lasting aversion to risk, with no guarantee of artificial stimulus. Above all, this analysis underscores the current tension between technological euphoria and accounting realities, while reminding us that for many participants, bitcoin remains the ultimate barometer for global liquidity policies.