Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin is down approximately 1% and remains just above $78,000.
- Brent crude rose to nearly $102 a barrel following new statements from Iran.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.85%, a level not seen since late 2023.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading just above $78,000 on Thursday morning in Asia, down roughly 1% over the past twenty-four hours. The rest of the market is seeing a sharper decline.
A uniformly bearish market
Dogecoin is leading the pullback with a drop of more than 5%, followed by BNB at around 4% and XRP at 3%.
Solana (SOL), the HYPE surrounding Hyperliquid, and ether (ETH) are each down between 1% and 3%, leaving ether just under $2,475 and Solana near $102. Tron is the day's sole gainer, up less than 1% to about 34 cents.
| Crypto | 24-hour performance | 7-day performance |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | -1.5% | +0.5% |
| Ethereum ETH | -2% | +3% |
| Ripple XRP | +4% | +0.5% |
Bitcoin’s golden cross sparks debate
A technical signal anticipated for weeks finally materialized on Tuesday. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average moved back above its 200-day average, a configuration technical analysts call a golden cross.
FxPro analysts are urging caution regarding its interpretation. Two comparable crosses, in October 2024 and May 2025, yielded no significant results.
However, they point to a difference in context. This one follows a prolonged bull market, rather than occurring in the middle of a correction. "The current situation looks more like what we saw in 2019," they wrote, noting that a 90% rally followed that signal in less than two months.
A reminder regarding this type of indicator: a moving average cross describes past price action, not the future. Its value lies primarily in the number of market participants watching it.
Oil dictates interest rates
The driving factor is, once again, coming from the Gulf. Brent crude climbed to nearly $102 a barrel during the Asian session, following statements from Iran claiming the country was prepared for a more intense conflict.
The transmission to interest rates is immediate. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady near 4.85%, a level not seen since the end of 2023.
Adding to this is a sense of disappointment. The U.S. Treasury's plan to buy back up to $6 billion in long-term debt was deemed insufficient by investors who had hoped for a higher figure. Scott Bessent had suggested in mid-August that these buybacks would double to at least $4 billion.
Stocks follow suit, the dollar no longer benefits from oil
Asian markets have followed Wall Street's lead. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index is down nearly 1%, with declines in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia. The S&P 500 fell about 1% on Wednesday.
The behavior of the dollar is worth noting. The index tracking it remains in the 98 zone, as its intraday gains failed to hold. The greenback is no longer receiving the support it gained from the rise in crude at the start of the conflict.
Two currencies are drawing attention. The yen returned to the 150 area against the dollar following Scott Bessent's warning to traders betting against it. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar pushed the greenback below 1.38, as retaliatory tariffs took effect and Washington restricted certain Canadian imports.
What’s next?
The U.S. Consumer Price Index due on Friday is the next key milestone, and the last one before the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting.
The mechanics are simple: a high inflation print would bring a rate hike back into expectations, thereby impacting the prices of everything that dropped on Thursday. A lower-than-expected reading would do the opposite.
The paradox remains clear: oil at $102 puts pressure on future inflation, while Friday’s data will reflect the month of August, before this recent surge.
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Author
Chief Content Officer CoinAcademy. Tech, finances, crypto, IA. Alex@coinacademy.fr