Bitcoin: Fidelity remains cautious about the end of the bear market

The recent rebound in Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market has revived hopes of an end to the bear market. However, at Fidelity Digital Assets, caution remains the order of the day. According to their analysts, there is no evidence yet to confirm that the correction phase that began in late 2025 is officially over. The article Bitcoin: Fidelity remains cautious about the end of the bear market appeared first on Cryptoast.

Despite a vigorous recovery in the cryptocurrency market throughout August 2026, with gains of 24% for Bitcoin, 31% for Ethereum, and nearly 38% for Solana, experts at Fidelity Digital Assets are urging caution. While these performances spark hope for a definitive exit from the bear market that began in October 2025, the asset manager believes it is premature to confirm a lasting trend reversal. Prudence remains the watchword in the face of market cycles that, while historically correlated with technological adoption, still retain a degree of unpredictability.

At the heart of this analysis lies the famous four-year cycle, traditionally paced by the halving mechanism. According to this historical timeline, a new floor could technically materialize around November 2026, four years after the major bottom of November 2022. However, Fidelity tempers this statistical determinism by noting that cycle durations are never set in stone. The market could just as easily have bottomed out last July, or it may face further adjustments in the coming months.

The report also highlights a striking phenomenon of decoupling: while prices stagnated or fell, the real-world adoption of digital assets and network activity continued to climb. This resilience in fundamentals, observed during the 2021-2022 period, seems to be repeating itself today. The current price rally could thus mark the beginning of a "recoupling" between financial valuation and the true utility of protocols, a signal often preceding more mature bullish phases.

Finally, the regulatory climate and reactions to external shocks provide valuable insights. While crucial legislative texts like the CLARITY Act remain pending in the Senate, the market is showing unprecedented robustness. The price indifference to security incidents or institutional roadblocks suggests that selling pressure has eased significantly. This resilience, coupled with expanding volatility, reinforces the idea that the sector is actively seeking a new positive catalyst to validate the end of this correction phase.