CLARITY Act: Without a Congressional vote, we may have to wait until 2030

The US Congress is gearing up for a decisive vote on the CLARITY Act to begin reviewing the bill. The odds of success before the end of the year have plummeted to under 20% on Polymarket, as Senator Cynthia Lummis warns that another such opportunity won't arise until 2030. The article CLARITY Act: Without a Congressional vote, we may have to wait until 2030 first appeared on Cryptoast.

The U.S. digital asset sector is holding its breath ahead of a critical legislative deadline on September 15. Congress is set to vote on a motion to formally open debate on the CLARITY Act, a landmark bill intended to clarify the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. However, the proposal faces major political hurdles in the Senate, where the current Republican majority is struggling to secure the 60 votes required to clear the floor, running up against Democratic opposition over concerns regarding government ethics and banking regulation.

Initial optimism has largely evaporated over the past few weeks, giving way to deep skepticism among observers and market participants. On the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing by the end of the year has plunged below 20%—a dramatic drop from the 75% seen last May. This climate of distrust is echoed by analysts at major financial institutions, whose projections for success now hover between 10% and 25%, illustrating a near-total legislative gridlock.

The stakes are nonetheless significant, particularly regarding the division of authority between the CFTC, which would oversee spot markets, and the SEC, which is responsible for tokenized securities. Despite the clear need for legal certainty, both agencies have already signaled that they could enforce strict regulation through administrative channels should the parliamentary process fail. Such an outcome, while possible, would deprive the industry of a long-term legislative framework essential to providing legal security for developers and investors alike.

Senator Cynthia Lummis recently issued a stern warning: if Congress fails to seize this opportunity before the end of the legislative session, no meaningful legislative progress should be expected before 2030. For the Senator, this stagnation risks permanently stifling innovation, leading to a loss of skilled jobs, and depriving the country of significant tax revenue. The September 15 vote, therefore, is not merely a technical milestone, but a decisive turning point for the future of the American crypto ecosystem.