The return from summer break marks a period of turbulence for French household budgets, as they face a significant increase in everyday expenses. As of this September, the benchmark gas price has recorded a sharp rise of 5.6%, bringing the cost per megawatt-hour to 172.05 euros. For households using gas for heating, this inflation translates to an annual bill increase of approximately 103 euros, representing a total hike of 359 euros over twelve months. This upward trend, largely fueled by tensions in European wholesale markets, further weakens purchasing power already under pressure from a gloomy economic outlook.
At the same time, public support schemes are undergoing restrictive adjustments. The scope of the MaPrimeRénov’ program is being drastically reduced, now excluding many standalone renovations and gas boilers. Simultaneously, unemployment compensation rules are tightening: maximum benefit durations are being cut for employees who opt for a voluntary separation agreement. These measures, compounded by persistent inflation, reinforce the feeling of an eroding standard of living for a large portion of the population.
On the national stage, the preparation of the 2027 budget is taking place in a climate of high political tension. The authorities, represented by Sébastien Lecornu, are attempting to stabilize the public deficit without resorting to a general tax hike—a political red line as the presidential election approaches. The goal of containing the deficit at 5.1% of GDP seems ambitious, given the sluggish growth and an unstable international context. To achieve this balance, the government is prioritizing a strategy of spending control, targeting non-priority sectors while safeguarding sovereign areas such as defense and justice.
The budgetary equation is made even more complex by the fact that the government lacks a solid majority in Parliament. This lack of consensus exposes the executive branch to the risk of recurring use of constitutional tools, such as Article 49.3, to pass its bills. A few days before the senatorial elections, uncertainty looms over the State's ability to navigate these headwinds. Faced with this chronic instability and the devaluation of fiat currency, these political trade-offs confirm the growing mistrust among some savers, who are increasingly turning to alternative and decentralized assets to preserve their capital over the long term.