The global base metals market has reached a historic milestone as the value of the red metal hits unprecedented highs. On the London market, prices climbed as high as $14,674 per tonne, marking an increase of 18% since the start of the year and more than 48% over twelve months. This spectacular appreciation is driven by a combination of severe logistical tensions, a rush for physical supply, and the resource's growing role in the strategic infrastructure of the new economy, exhibiting a scarcity dynamic comparable to precious metals or major digital assets.
This market overheating stems largely from a broad geographic reorganization of global reserves. Eager to get ahead of the imminent implementation of new U.S. customs barriers, American buyers are stockpiling the ore at a massive scale. Importers brought 885,000 tonnes of refined cathodes into the United States during the first half of the year, driving New York inventories up to 675,185 tonnes. Conversely, European and Asian warehouses are emptying at an alarming rate, recording respective declines of 40% in London and 85% in Shanghai, causing a significant distortion in liquidity available outside the U.S. market.
On the extraction side, supply capacity is proving unable to keep pace, heading toward its first annual decline since 2017. The situation deteriorated sharply following a deadly mudslide at the Indonesian Grasberg site—the world's second-largest mine—forcing the operator to declare force majeure. This unforeseen event is expected to reduce production by 525,000 tonnes, shifting the 2025 global balance from an initially forecasted surplus to a net deficit of 55,500 tonnes. This sudden contraction keeps the market in a state of deep backwardation, where spot delivery prices significantly outweigh futures contracts.
Beyond regulatory anticipation and supply shocks, this dynamic is underpinned by profound industrial shifts. The modernization of electrical grids and, above all, the massive deployment of data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence are generating a level of demand that analysts did not expect for several years. While major investment banks had set significantly lower price targets for 2027, the market has accelerated its timeline, confirming copper's central role in the global technological and energy transition.